Where do recruits come from? Backward Lagrangian simulation for the deep water rose shrimps in the Central Mediterranean Sea

Backward-in-time Lagrangian dispersion models can efficiently reconstruct drifters trajectories by linking known arrival positions to potential sources. This approach was applied the deep water rose shrimp (Parapenaeus longirostris) in Strait of Sicily (central Mediterranean Sea). The objective identify spawning areas larvae that settle nursery grounds northern sector Sicily, thus quantifying extent contribution recruitment from surrounding regions. Numerical simulations were performed over 11 years (2005–2015) and for two different periods (spring/summer autumn/winter) corresponding species' peaks region. persistence time identified through a Hotspot analysis backward end-points, filtered meet suitable depth range spawners. results confirmed expected downstream connectivity between along Sicilian–Maltese shelf and, notably, indicated these contribute high productivity resilience fisheries more than A minor time-varying is due on African shelf. These are important adequately define geographical scale assessment management this fishery resource Sicily. In particular, assumption single stock does not consider spatial structure population should be revised purpose management.